Myten om den kommende supermagt Kina

De sidste mange år har vi hørt på hvordan de fleste medier har forudsagt at Kina snart bliver en økonomisk supermagt. Nogle mener imidlertid ikke det er tilfældet, og følgende stemmer til eftertanke - der argumenteres for at vi skal holde øjne med Indien istedet:

The "smart money" literally favors China. Foreign companies pour billions upon billions into direct investment there. But what if they are pouring 21st-century dollars or yen into a great 20th-century power? Politically, China is ruled by Leninists who must maintain the status quo. Militarily it relies on a large, underequipped land army. Economically it has adapted and mastered Henry Ford's assembly line on a continental scale. Financially it hordes its cash, regulates its markets with zeal and defensively uses fiscal policy to prevent mass upheaval.

Even the Bush administration's trade arguments with China come from the past. While the United States and India argue about problems of the future, such as intercontinental outsourcing, the U.S.-China quarrel smacks of the Bretton Woods conference of 1944. Washington wants Beijing to revalue its currency as a way of cutting the staggering trade imbalances spinning out of low-wage manufacturing. ...

The Middle Kingdom serves as a platform to bring together capital, cheap labor and industrial technology from throughout the region and ultimately the world. China relies on this empire, but does not totally control it.

India, on the other hand, has set out to become "a global knowledge hub, with a central place in the transnational movement of knowledge and services," Nath said in a conversation here last week. He argued that India's comparative advantage lies in its large and relatively young educated population. Seventy percent of India's 1.1 billion people are literate -- many of them are fluent in English -- and about half are under 30.

Efter at have læst artiklen er jeg faktisk kommet til at tænke på at man i Danmark generelt har hørt om at det er fabriks-jobs der forsvinder til Kina, mens Indien tager sig af kundeservice og IT-opgaver.

Det stemmer til eftertanke.

Henrik