En irakisk meningsmåling af tvivlsom kvalitet

The Sunday Telegraph kunne for et par dage siden afsløre, at det britiske forsvarsministerium havde fået foretaget en meningsmåling i Irak, der viste at under halvdelen af den irakiske befolkning (45%) mente, at angreb på koalitionsstyrkerne var retfærdiggjorte. Der er imidlertid flere problemer med avisens raport.

Til at starte med har jeg problemer med at stole på avisens upartiskhed, al den tid at den på trods af dusinvis af meningsmålinger om emnet kan påstå at lige præcis denne "demonstrates for the first time the true strength of anti-Western feeling in Iraq after more than two and a half years of bloody occupation".

Der er også problemer med selve raportens trovædrighed, al den tid at intet bliver fortalt om metoden, den er foretaget efter, hvor stor en gruppe interviews der er foretaget, og hvor repræsentativ den er. Jeg tænker for eksempel på Kurderne, der udgør 20% af befolkningen og, takket være koalitionsstyrkerne, slap af med den diktator der kostede over 100.000 af dem livet.

Da Sunday Telegraph citerer raporten for at 82% af befolkningen er "stærkt imod" tilstedeværelsen af koalitions-styrker, skulle det betyde at hver evig eneste araber i landet skulle være inkluderet heri, hvortil kommer hver tiende Kurder. Noget sådant virker ikke sandsynligt.

En yderligere brik i puslespillet er ophavsmændene til rapporten:

The survey was conducted by an Iraqi university research team that, for security reasons, was not told the data it compiled would be used by coalition forces.

Den berygtede Lancet-rapport blev udført på en lignende måde, og resultaterne af den er for længe siden blevet grundigt diskrediteret, blandt andet på bloggen her.

Bloggeren Seixon - en amerikaner bosat i Norge - har også undret sig lidt, og har sammenlignet rapportens resultater med UN Iraq Living Conditions Survey fra August 2004:

Opinions are much easier to change than real world situations. That's why I felt it was important to view the other results of this poll, which were:

Immediately after the war the coalition embarked on a campaign of reconstruction in which it hoped to improve the electricity supply and the quality of drinking water.

That appears to have failed, with the poll showing that 71 per cent of people rarely get safe clean water, 47 per cent never have enough electricity, 70 per cent say their sewerage system rarely works and 40 per cent of southern Iraqis are unemployed.

I love the qualifiers in use here, this "appears to have failed". Right. It just so happens that the UN did an Iraq Living Conditions Survey back in 2004, of 21,668 households. It is very doubtful that this research team from an Iraqi university had the same depth. So let's compare some of their findings!

1. Water

1. MoD Poll: 71% rarely get safe clean water
2. UNDP Study: 61% have stable safe drinking water, 30% have unstable safe water, 9% have unsafe water

2. Electricity

1. Mod Poll: 47% never have enough
2. UNDP Study: 15% stable, 7% rather unstable, 78% unstable, 0% none

3. Sewer System

1. MoD Poll: 70% rarely works
2. UNDP Study: 37% connected of which only 19% report frequent or always problems; ergo, 51% of those who are connected have frequent or always problems with their sewer system

4. Unemployment

1. MoD Poll: 40% of southern Iraq
2. UNDP Study: 10.8-19.5% of southern Iraq (depending on definition of unemployment)

Needless to say, the UNDP poll, even though it was conducted a year before the MoD poll, shows wildly different figures. Are we to believe that Iraqi infrastructure has gone so much backwards over the last year?

Tankevækkende.

Men alt andet vil det bedste være, hvis regeringen efterkommer SFs ønske, og spørger den britiske regering, om ikke man kan få udleveret den fulde rapport. Så kan vi bedre afgøre, om resultaterne er troværdige eller ej.

Update:

Kim har på Uriasposten også lidt om, hvordan dele af den danske medie-verden har forsøgt at spinne nyheden.

Henrik