Tanker om 2008-præsidentvalget i USA
I USA er Pat Buchanan, it takt med at han er rykket længere og længere ud på den amerikanske højrefløj ved at have mistet det meste af sin troværdighed. Ikke desto mindre begik han for nylig på Human Events Online en udemærket artikel, der troværdigt argumenterer for at det Demokratiske Parti er på vej ud i en situation som den det befandt sig i i 1968.
Dengang lavede det Demokratiske Partis radikale venstrefløj så meget ballade pga Vietnam-krigen at det førte til en veritabel flugt af moderate stemmer fra det Demokratiske Parti kun fire år efter partiet havde fået den største stemme-andel set i nyere historie. Siden er det kun lykkedes demokraterne at få valgt to præsidenter: den højreorienterede demokrat Jimmy Carter efter skandalen omkring Nixon, og den højreorienterede demokrat Clinton to gange i 90erne, hvor det aldrig lykkedes manden at få et flertal af stemmerne.
Men tilbage til Buchanans artikel (det skal med at Buchanan - rimeligt plausibelt - går ud fra at Hillary Clinton bliver demokraternes kandidat i 2008):
In June, I ventured a prediction: "A Eugene McCarthy will appear soon to pressure and challenge Hillary Clinton in 2008, if Hillary does not convert herself into an antiwar candidate ..."
Observing the Cindy Sheehan protest, I updated the prediction just last week: "September could see the coalescing of an antiwar movement that ... divides (the) Democratic Party ..." And so it has come to pass.
On Sunday's "Meet the Press," Gene McCarthy emerged in the person of Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin. ..
Consider Hillary's predicament. Today, she is taking the same cautious position on Iraq that Richard Nixon took in the fall of 1968 on Vietnam. She is saying she supports the war and the troops, but the war has been mismanaged and America needs new leadership.
No risk there. Hillary's problem is she is three years away from 2008, the antiwar movement increasingly looks on her as a collaborator in "Bush's War," and Democrats like Feingold are going to give these antiwar militants the rhetoric and stances they demand. Hillary's most rabid followers will depart if she does not leave Bush's side -- to lead them.
This surging antiwar movement will not permit moderates to get away with a stay-the-course, we-support-the-troops position. They will demand a timetable for withdrawal and rally to the candidate who offers one, just as antiwar Democrats rallied to Gene McCarthy, Bobby Kennedy and George McGovern in 1968.
The Democrats' dilemma is hellish. If this war ends successfully, Republicans get the credit. If it ends badly, Bush will be gone, but antiwar Democrats will be blamed for having cut and run, for losing the war and for the disastrous consequences in the Persian Gulf and Arab world.
Så demokraterne har et problem. Spørgsmålet er så om republikanerne kan finde en kandidat, der kan udnytte demokraternes problemer. Conoleezza Rice er oplagt, men indtil videre har hun afvist at være interesseret.
Update:
Det er ikke kun højrefløjen, der har øjne for problemet. Michael J. Totten har en artikel på Tech Central Station om den vensreradikale aktivist-fløj i USA, og han er ikke glad.
Henrik
Dengang lavede det Demokratiske Partis radikale venstrefløj så meget ballade pga Vietnam-krigen at det førte til en veritabel flugt af moderate stemmer fra det Demokratiske Parti kun fire år efter partiet havde fået den største stemme-andel set i nyere historie. Siden er det kun lykkedes demokraterne at få valgt to præsidenter: den højreorienterede demokrat Jimmy Carter efter skandalen omkring Nixon, og den højreorienterede demokrat Clinton to gange i 90erne, hvor det aldrig lykkedes manden at få et flertal af stemmerne.
Men tilbage til Buchanans artikel (det skal med at Buchanan - rimeligt plausibelt - går ud fra at Hillary Clinton bliver demokraternes kandidat i 2008):
In June, I ventured a prediction: "A Eugene McCarthy will appear soon to pressure and challenge Hillary Clinton in 2008, if Hillary does not convert herself into an antiwar candidate ..."
Observing the Cindy Sheehan protest, I updated the prediction just last week: "September could see the coalescing of an antiwar movement that ... divides (the) Democratic Party ..." And so it has come to pass.
On Sunday's "Meet the Press," Gene McCarthy emerged in the person of Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin. ..
Consider Hillary's predicament. Today, she is taking the same cautious position on Iraq that Richard Nixon took in the fall of 1968 on Vietnam. She is saying she supports the war and the troops, but the war has been mismanaged and America needs new leadership.
No risk there. Hillary's problem is she is three years away from 2008, the antiwar movement increasingly looks on her as a collaborator in "Bush's War," and Democrats like Feingold are going to give these antiwar militants the rhetoric and stances they demand. Hillary's most rabid followers will depart if she does not leave Bush's side -- to lead them.
This surging antiwar movement will not permit moderates to get away with a stay-the-course, we-support-the-troops position. They will demand a timetable for withdrawal and rally to the candidate who offers one, just as antiwar Democrats rallied to Gene McCarthy, Bobby Kennedy and George McGovern in 1968.
The Democrats' dilemma is hellish. If this war ends successfully, Republicans get the credit. If it ends badly, Bush will be gone, but antiwar Democrats will be blamed for having cut and run, for losing the war and for the disastrous consequences in the Persian Gulf and Arab world.
Så demokraterne har et problem. Spørgsmålet er så om republikanerne kan finde en kandidat, der kan udnytte demokraternes problemer. Conoleezza Rice er oplagt, men indtil videre har hun afvist at være interesseret.
Update:
Det er ikke kun højrefløjen, der har øjne for problemet. Michael J. Totten har en artikel på Tech Central Station om den vensreradikale aktivist-fløj i USA, og han er ikke glad.
Henrik
posted by Henrik | 9:16 PM
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